Brazilian elections kick off soon and for the moment, there are two candidates clearly far ahead, recent polls have shown. As could be expected, these are current president Jair Bolsonaro, a right-winger and the left wing former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The first round will take place on Oct. 2, if no one wins more than 50% of the vote, a runoff is scheduled for Oct. 30.
Lula has been leading the polls for a long time but the gap between the former president and current president Bolsonaro is narrowing. On Monday, an FSB poll showed Lula’s advantage down from 11% to 9%, and polls from Ideia on Wednesday and Atlas on Thursday came out with a slightly smaller gap of 8% (Figure 1).
However, the third favorite candidate in the polls Ciro Gomes is closer to Lula in terms on the political spectrum and is likely to support him in the event of a second round.
Therefore, at this stage, a Lula victory appears to be the most likely scenario.